Trading the Newmarket Guineas

This weekend sees the first real big trading market of the flat turf season, the Newmarket Guineas.

The interest in the first ‘Classic’ of the season is high and it should be a big betting market and that usually translates into a good trading market. A Guinea is old money for 21 shillings or £1.05. So in effect, with the current level of prize money for the 2000 Guineas, it really should be called something more like the 200,000 Guineas!

If you want some history on horse racing, then Newmarket is UK horse racings HQ and if you are nearby it’s worth popping into the national heritage centre for horseracing and sporting art.

I’ve always enjoyed the Guineas meeting and have had some fun and game over the years on it. It’s the first classic of the flat turf season for the horse racing markets and an opportunity to get some big race practice in ahead of the other big races out there.

Newmarket Guineas Turnover

On the Betfair exchange, The amount of money that gets traded at the big meetings is huge. The level of interest in the betting market tends to drive the trading market. The Newmarket 2000 Guineas has averaged just under £4m on the betting exchange over the last ten years or so. Sports traders tend to prefer high liquid markets, so meetings like this are welcome.

The most recent peak is way back in 2010, it’s not performed as well since then. Even in 2011 when Frankel was an incredibly short 1.59 to win it only managed £3.5m. In hindsight, Frankel was a bargain at those prices!

I’ve no doubt however that the general level of betting interest in this market will drive some new Betfair account openings, some offers will encourage matched betting, the odd free bet or two will be created and perhaps some new inductees to horse racing. So all of that activity should drive an active market.

From a Betfair trading perspective, it’s big. But not as massive as some of the other meetings, but worth a fair amount of effort.

The 1000 Guineas is on Sunday and as with most Sunday racing will come in much lower. Historically it has matched around 60% of the big race but is still worth a shot. There shouldn’t be much price movement on the big race itself

Betfair trading outlook

Being a full time trader and market veteran, I feel I have underperformed for a few years.

If you have been around for some time, it’s tough to really perform at the highest level or hit new heights. For that to happen you need all things to slot into place perfectly to get the result you are really looking for.

I still haven’t beaten my total from 2010 when just that happened, and I walked away with a decent result from the race and for the entire day. The total you see is all pre-race trading on a number of horse racing markets, not just the Guineas, but it was a cracking day. Something I haven’t repeated since, but I usually have a ‘decent’ day each year.

But back to this year and we find a very competitive race. That will probably result in a slightly lower turnover than average, but it will feel a bit more like a Cheltenham or Derby so that should suit me. I’ll be using much larger stakes to take advantage of that, but as always you have to treat each market as you see it, not how you predict it!

My views on the trading conditions haven’t varied that much over the years so I’ve added a previous video which you can view, so watch that if you want a narrated view on the market.

Best of luck, whatever you are doing.

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